The commissioner made the comment at a media briefing in Lagos on Friday.

As of Friday, Lagos had a total of 44 cases, according to the Nigeria Centre For Disease Control (NCDC).

“Our mathematical modelling shows that the worst-case scenario is that we may see up to 39,000 cases in Lagos,” Mr Abayomi said. If we add social distancing to active contact tracing, then we will be able to bend the curve further.”

Abayomi noted that the projected figure was not to cause alarm but to encourage Lagos residents to follow the government’s instructions and practice social distancing.

“Looking at the same time-frame from the introduction of the index case, you can see that Lagos state is not seen anywhere near what Spain, Italy and Iran are showing,” he said. So, at weeks two and three of our index case, we are flat and at week four, we have 37 cases; while at the same fourth week, Italy, Iran and Spain had more than 20,000 cases. So, we are doing something right in the state. Then if we continue to do that, we will remain on the lower trajectory.”

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